The European Central Bank’s (ECB) updated wage tracker indicates average negotiated wage growth of 2.8% in the euro area in the first three quarters of 2027, excluding one-off payments. The corresponding average for the full year of 2026 is 2.6%.
The headline tracker, which smooths one-off payments over 12 months, points to wage growth of 2.7% in the second half of 2026 and 2.8% in the first half of 2027. It falls to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027, when employee coverage is still limited at 23.3%.
The headline tracker puts growth for 2026 as a whole at 2.3%, with agreements covering 46.2% of employees in participating countries. The relatively low reading for the first half of 2026 still reflects one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 and not repeated the following year. Their effect will have fully dissipated in the second half of 2026.
