Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) forecasts that U.S. retail sales in November and December will increase 4.5% from a year earlier, the strongest holiday-season growth since 2021.
VBEI expects prices for holiday-related goods to rise about 3.4%, while inflation-adjusted spending grows 1.1%. Consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on gifts, up 5.6% from $736 in 2025.
More than half of survey respondents put travel and live events among their top holiday wishes. But 15% said they would prioritize spending on experiences, compared with 27% who plan to prioritize physical gifts. VBEI said higher travel costs could shift some holiday spending toward merchandise.
